German Inflation Data Fuels Concerns

By admin, November 20, 2013

Consumer inflation in Germany has fallen to levels last seen in April 2013, and reaction from the forex markets has been mixed. The federal statistics office confirmed what many analysts had previously indicated in their forecasts: German consumers got a slight break at the cash register during October.

Reaction by the forex markets to the economic update from Germany was mostly mixed. As reported on iForex.in, the euro essentially disregarded the inflation news and advanced against the U.S. dollar and the British pound. The harmonized October reports from Germany show that inflation stood at 1.2 percent versus 1.4 percent in the previous month.

Reasons for Concern

Economists and European Union finance ministers are concerned that the latest figures from Germany point to a larger deflationary trend. Inflation in the Eurozone has been slowing gradually to the lowest levels in four years, which recently motivated the European Central Bank (ECB) to adjust the key interest rate downward to 0.25 percent.

In light of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the ECB is keeping a close eye on inflation. The goal is to keep inflation a little under 2 percent for the purpose of stimulating the economy, but the 1.2 percent reports from Germany hint at the possibility of deflation.

News From the United Kingdom

Germany is not the only European nation to experience lower inflation rates. In the UK, the year-over-year inflation report for October came in at 2.2 percent. Analysts expected an increase to 2.5 percent, particularly after seeing inflation jump to 2.7 percent in October. This slowdown was not seen in the housing sector as home values in the UK are now at historically high levels. As a result, the British pound has been sluggish in the forex markets.

Positive News from the United States

The battered American economy saw signs of improvement thanks to a positive report from the Financial Conditions Index, which is an amalgam of the money lending rates and the yields on U.S. sovereign debt. This index climbed 0.4 percent to stand at 1,825. This macroeconomic indicator put the U.S. dollar on an uptick trend.

Gold Reacts to U.S. News

Now that the Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S. is hinting at a possible reduction of its stimulus program before 2013 comes to an end, gold prices reacted downward. As more positive economic news come out of the U.S., gold traders seem to be pulling back on their market positions, which are placing December futures as low as $1,280.40 an ounce.

Source: iFOREX